EVENT DETAILS AND ABSTRACT

Title: Heterogeneity and predictability of global epidemics
Speaker: Marc Barthelemy
Speaker Info: CEA, Bruyeres-le-Chatel, France
Brief Description:
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Abstract:

We investigate the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging disease. We study a stochastic epidemic modeling framework that considers the entire world-wide airline database along with census data for urban populations, and which allows to relate the system complexity to the disease spreading pattern. In particular, we characterize quantitatively the heterogeneity level of the spreading pattern and its predictability in presence of stochastic fluctuations. The effect of the complex airline network topology, traffic flows and population heterogeneity is rationalized by comparison with relevant null hypotheses, demonstrating the role of the different levels of heterogeneity in the formation of the global spatio-temporal spreading pattern.