Title: The Monty Hall Problem, Reconsidered
Speaker: Prof. Jason Rosenhouse
Speaker Info: James Madison University
Brief Description:
Special Note: Annual Undergraduate Prize Lecture and Award Ceremony
Abstract:
The Monty Hall problem is a classic probabilistic brainteaser inspired by a 1970s game show. You are confronted with three doors. One conceals a car, while the other two conceal goats. You initially choose one of the doors, but before opening it the host of the show (whose name is Monty Hall) opens one of the other two doors that he knows conceals a goat. You are then given the choice of sticking with your initial choice, or switching to the other door. Which choice should you make? The problem has been known to cause controversy because the intuitively "obvious" answer--that it does not matter whether you stick or switch since with two doors remaining the choice is fifty-fifty--turns out to be incorrect. We shall consider some methods for solving the problem, and for thinking clearly about conditional probability more generally. We shall also use numerous variants on the basic problem to illustrate other fundamental ideas in probability theory.Date: Wednesday, May 17, 2017